The financial crisis seems to be over and many research institutes, like the Deutsche Bank think tank, even consider the crisis as one of the less expensive ones when solely looking at government spending. Most of the rescue funds have been used as a guarantee. Guarantees which finally weren’t needed to the extend governments initially feared. Thus, the crisis wasn't as disastrous as expected. The Economist in its July 10 issue even expects German GDP to rise by some 4% in the second quarter 2010. The unemployment rate is lower than in 2007 (The Economist - July 10 2010 - Lemon aid - The euro-area economy). The picture is gloomier elsewhere. The United States haven’t managed to keep unemployment low but here as well we see positive signs. Don't even talk about China, the seemingly almighty economic champion. Should we lean back and enjoy the recovery?

Well you might enjoy it for a certain time but the next crisis is already coming. The strong connection between countries and markets increases contagion. Any little bushfire in the most remote area might burn our house down at any time.

Best example is the last crisis which has been a local American housing problem but spread over to one of the most global crisis ever (I am just saying global, not the worst). The continuing globalization has its merits and should not be stopped – contributing to the development of each participant - , but we need to be aware that when markets can infect other, seemingly non-correlated, markets, we need official bodies that can govern and control the impact.

A G20 summit is not enough and the IMF has not enough power. The World Trade Organization has limited powers and struggles even to resolve the most basic topics such as the hidden – and illegal - support from the US and Europe to their big aerospace companies (Boeing and EADS).

You would think that Europe is a good example for an effective international co-operation. But when it comes to economics, Europe is deeply divided and has no apparent plan. Europe struggles as much as other countries to find a middle way between free markets and regulations. When it comes to monetary policy Europeans are hopelessly divided (especially France and Germany).

With such an “economic government” we will certainly see some more crisis and those crises will be even more severe. We probably need two or three deep recessions, which bring us close to a war, to change the international bodies, to implement effective regulation and supervision.

So lean back, but keep on growing your own food and buy a house, so that, during the next decades, you’ll have at least something to eat and a roof over your head.