A new Cold War! We lived the end of the first cold war, are we going to live the beginning of the next episode?
Russia lost a lot of its power at the end of the first Cold War. They went from one crisis to another, their empire busted into pieces. Russia wasn't able to really prove its strength until recently. The last years the new Russia came back on the international platform, playing with its muscles. The hands in its neighbouring countries like Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine shows that they are starting to stop sleeping.
Iran. Powerless until the moment where an international power backs their plans, and confirms that they believe in Iran's honesty. Who is this international power? Of course, Russia is. They supported Iran, not only because they have economic interest in the region (everyone actually has this) but because Russia turns the wheel now. However, by letting the last UN resolution and as a consequence the sanctions against Iran pass Russia showed that Iran has to be careful in handling with them. It is Russia which dictates the rules and not Iran.
Russia also plays with Europe. Europe, as one of the leading economies, needs energy. And a huge part of this energy comes from Russia. Until present the lobbies have discouraged the politicians from changing anything of their energy policy because they feared losing money. The consequence could be now that every one of Europe's habitants will lose money. We have now higher energy prices due to the pressure of Russia, which also pressures Iran, which itsself has a lot of influence in Iraq and other countries in the Middle East.
China on the other side is the laughing third, accepting Russia's energy with open arms and willing to pay the right price for it...But can China really go this way? Can they mess up with Europe by accepting Russia's gamble for power? Europe represents an enormous market and the consequences of an "angry" Europe, installing import tariffs and other barriers could delete the economic advantage of cheap production in China...companies would rather go to Vietnam or other South-East Asian countries.
However, Iran and Russia, two players, some years before not in our minds, now present in every single newspaper. The last meeting of the Middle East quartet (EU, USA, UN, Russia) in Berlin this week Russia and USA came pretty close to a conflict, disagreeing on the new government to be formed in Palestine.
But can Russia afford such a conflict? Are they economical stable enough to really support a new Cold War? To answer this question we should ask ourselves if they ever have been strong enough to be a global player. Economically they have never been such a big superpower. Sure, their industry and their military-industry has been enormous but by the end their system collapsed because they simply forgot about the people living in their state. Those people wanted more freedom and where freedom is there can be no Cold War because it would need propaganda to create support in their own population. Being shut from the outside like North Korea, Russia would never do this or could never afford such a situation. Aren't they also depended on our knowledge, our machinery and technology?
There could be an endlessly discussion on this subject. But what is clear from now on is that Russia is back on the international scene. It is the comeback of the former Popstar. Russia is seeking to become a superpower again and aren't they on a good way?
